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June 24, 2008

Daily Report for Tue, Jun 24, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Yesterday, while most traders were waiting on the FOMC decision from the Fed tomorrow, and trading was quiet, Goldman Sachs decided to imprint the market mindset with an inflation-biased hedge: they cut Financials (XLF -3.2%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.7%) from “Neutral” to “Underweight”, while talking up the oil price and of course oil stocks (XLE +4.0%).

The DJIA and S&P 500 finished flat at 11842 and 1318.0 respectively, while the NASDAQ Composite sank -20.35 -0.85% to 2385.74. Inflation-beneficiary Toronto Exchange Composite gained +111 to 14691.82.

With inflation talk, the yields on US Treasuries, especially the short-end, lifted and bond prices fell back. The 30-year $USB dropped -0.15% to 113.28.

Yesterday, UAL was reported by CNBC as about to lay off 950 pilots beginning in September. UAUA dropped -14.94% and the US Airline index ($XAL) fell -7.0%. Two days of selling in this industry has dramatically lowered share prices from an already extremely low level.

There is some discussion that Toyota (TM) may retract its previous sales targets for 2008 because of economic and financial market considerations. The #2 automaker in December targeted 2.64 million vehicles in the US in 2008 and forecast a +5% rise in global sales to 9.85 million vehicles. At the time, they attributed strong sales to emerging markets such as China and Russia.

Yesterday, $GOLD plunged in a matter of a few moments, and then recovered slightly to close down -$16.50/oz at 887.20.

The $USD has lost -0.25% this morning (9:00am) to 73.63, which may help boost the precious metals. So far this morning, the spot prices for gold, palladium, platinum and silver are flat to down a bit at 886.52, 465, 2031, and 16.76, respectively.

The Euro futures are up +0.3% to 1.5500 and Crude Oil futures up +1.11/bbl to 137.85 for WTIC and to 1.3776 for Brent.

Asia-Pacific markets closed weak today except for Shanghai, which was up +1.54% to 2803. The other markets appear to be in a wait state, which will end tomorrow at 2:15pm ET after the FOMC announcement. Europe is weak.

The DJIA futures are down -42 to 11789, which is just above the 11700-11750 range that many technical analysts consider as a strong support base, and which I think will break this week.


Comments & Outlook

It strikes me that this Israel-Iran confrontation is mostly about trying to keep the high oil prices elevated. A skeptic could even point to the oil lobby pressure on the US government to open up drilling in heretofore environmentally protected regions.

I am also suspicious of the Goldman Sachs pressure, which is playing into the Treasury Secretary’s hands. Of course the man, Mr. Moral Hazard himself was the previous head honcho at Goldman. I am so suspicious of this that I’m now waiting for John Thain at Merrill Lynch to push their analysts to make a similar report.

These are the reasons that people rise to positions of power. They and their friends make enormous wealth when they issue “analytical” reports that are favorable to their positions and to cause the enactment of favorable legislation. When we speak of bought-and-paid-for politicians and analysts, these are the people behind the moves.

Re Crystallex (KRY), there is hope yet. The company released the following statement this morning:

Crystallex has received the official minutes of the meeting held at the Permanent Committee for the Economic Development of the National Assembly at the public hearing held on June 4, 2008 to discuss the delay of the Las Cristinas project. At the meeting, representatives of the Ministry of Mines (“MIBAM”) confirmed support for Crystallex and its compliance with all procedural and administrative steps up to the denial of the permit by MinAmb. The resolution issued by the Committee states that the Las Cristinas project has been in development for a significant period of time with the support of different branches of the Government. The resolution further notes a lack of coordination between the various Government branches, which it suggests should be resolved in light of the macroeconomic policies and goals of Venezuela, as well as the social needs of the people and the pre-existing environmental damage.

Would someone please check the insider trading reports and see whether the managers of this company are showing their support by buying the stock at these ultra-low levels?

These news releases have zero impact on me unless I see that management is putting their own skin in the game.


Links & Charts


International Economics Review

US Economic Calendar.



Knobias Cara100 Tables

 Portfolio GAINERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
SU 63.950 +3.010 +4.9 4.9M
CEO 166.330 +7.580 +4.8 416.1K
CCJ 38.980 +1.720 +4.6 3.2M
XOM 87.700 +2.790 +3.3 23.5M
ECA 91.660 +2.470 +2.8 2.6M
TOT 82.290 +2.060 +2.6 2.9M
CVX 99.060 +2.440 +2.5 12.1M
BHP 85.730 +2.110 +2.5 3.7M
GG 41.840 +0.940 +2.3 7M
CHL 68.470 +1.460 +2.2 1.9M
NUE 76.880 +1.320 +1.7 4.5M
PBR 66.320 +1.050 +1.6 12M
INFY 45.000 +0.690 +1.6 1.8M
EXC 90.920 +1.350 +1.5 2.5M
ABX 41.020 +0.590 +1.5 5.5M
IMO 55.850 +0.800 +1.5 336.1K
MICC 113.880 +1.630 +1.5 526.8K
DIS 32.390 +0.450 +1.4 10.7M
TCK 47.600 +0.660 +1.4 1.1M
DEO 74.210 +1.010 +1.4 1.5M
GSK 43.900 +0.580 +1.3 1.3M
JCP 37.350 +0.470 +1.3 6.7M
TS 67.950 +0.620 +0.9 2.9M
TGP 27.580 +0.200 +0.7 125.4K
RIO 35.060 +0.250 +0.7 23.1M

 Portfolio LOSERS
SYMB LAST CHG %C VOL
UBS 20.600 -1.300 -5.9 13.8M
LEH 22.800 -1.400 -5.8 23.6M
SBUX 16.300 -0.930 -5.4 19.5M
BC 11.400 -0.470 -4 3.2M
KSS 41.970 -1.420 -3.3 8.3M
GOL 12.380 -0.410 -3.2 793.2K
CCL 34.400 -1.070 -3 5.3M
WFMI 25.540 -0.780 -3 3.6M
NTES 21.320 -0.620 -2.8 870.1K
GS 178.590 -5.180 -2.8 9.8M
RY 45.600 -1.200 -2.6 1.5M
BBBY 28.090 -0.720 -2.5 6.8M
TGT 48.740 -1.240 -2.5 15.6M
YHOO 21.450 -0.540 -2.5 29.8M
ERJ 29.780 -0.720 -2.4 944.4K
CHRW 57.520 -1.360 -2.3 2.1M
VCP 27.800 -0.610 -2.1 858.9K
DB 89.190 -1.900 -2.1 716K
GRMN 42.620 -0.870 -2 1.7M
ERTS 46.040 -0.900 -1.9 2.8M
SNDK 20.780 -0.380 -1.8 9.7M
AMAT 19.750 -0.350 -1.7 24.8M
GGB 23.810 -0.410 -1.7 6.3M
HDB 78.460 -1.310 -1.6 480.6K
VIP 29.750 -0.460 -1.5 2.1M

 Portfolio 52-Wk HIGHS
SYMB DAY HIGH LAST CHG %CHG VOL
EXC 91.790 90.920 +1.350 +1.51 2.53M

 Portfolio 52-Wk LOWS
SYMB DAY LOW LAST CHG %CHG VOL
UBS 20.590 20.600 -1.300 -5.94 13.79M
WFMI 25.510 25.540 -0.780 -2.96 3.57M
DB 88.970 89.190 -1.900 -2.09 716.02K
GFI 10.660 11.090 -0.060 -0.54 5.67M

 Portfolio VOLUME
SYMB LAST %C VOL %ADSV
PDA 56.870 -0.8 445.6K +148
RY 45.600 -2.6 1.5M +133
WAG 34.700 -1.1 10.3M +84
DEO 74.210 +1.4 1.5M +70
SBUX 16.300 -5.4 19.5M +66
UBS 20.600 -5.9 13.8M +57
SWK 45.490 -0.6 979.1K +56
TGT 48.740 -2.5 15.6M +56
IBKR 33.500 +0 784.3K +39
VCP 27.800 -2.1 858.9K +37
TCK 47.600 +1.4 1.1M +32
BBBY 28.090 -2.5 6.8M +30
JCP 37.350 +1.3 6.7M +30
KSS 41.970 -3.3 8.3M +25
CHRW 57.520 -2.3 2.1M +23
CCJ 38.980 +4.6 3.2M +18
STO 36.620 -1.3 1.6M +18
GG 41.840 +2.3 7M +16
DB 89.190 -2.1 716K +13

 Analysts UPGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
TOT ABN Amro --- --- Hold Buy
JCP Deutsche Bank --- --- Hold Buy
• PREVIOUS SESSION
NONE FOUND.

 Analysts DOWNGRADES
SYMB ANALYST OLD   NEW BEFORE   AFTER
PDA Smith Barney --- --- Buy Hold
STO ABN Amro --- --- Hold Sell
• PREVIOUS SESSION
TS Smith Barney --- --- Hold Sell
CTSH Goldman Sachs --- --- Buy Neutral
SNDK Smith Barney 35.00 27.00 Buy Hold


Cara 100 Daily RSI-7 Charts


At least one RSI value >70:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SYT63.9992.4266.2652.75Sell alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $65.11, -1.72% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
ATVI35.6383.6790.4755.49Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $35.85, -0.61% chg], after a 1 day DZ)
RIMM143.0682.8969.9059.87Sell alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $144.56, -1.04% chg], after a 2 day DZ)
GGB23.8181.0067.0137.20
ECA91.6679.8664.3050.79
EXC90.9279.7873.5764.32
TS67.9579.4478.0674.55Distribution Zone (for 3 days)
WMT56.6479.3653.3534.56
TT46.4976.6565.6256.92
GG41.8473.2556.8066.27
NUE76.8872.7956.9552.27

At least one RSI value <30:
TickerLastRSI-7MRSI-7WRSI-7DZone
SBUX16.3012.5140.2225.73
BC11.4014.6219.7819.53Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
UBS20.6015.3520.7821.44Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
CCL34.4019.0331.7133.05
WFMI25.5419.6925.6028.30Accumulation Zone (for 1 days)
DB89.1920.4515.8513.82Accumulation Zone (for 5 days)
BMY19.7021.2425.8931.44Buy alert (trig. 1 days ago [on 2008-06-23 at $19.70, +0.00% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
JCP37.3521.7036.7339.60Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $37.25, +0.27% chg], after a 1 day AZ)
GOL12.7922.0230.9039.42Buy alert (trig. 5 days ago [on 2008-06-16 at $12.78, +0.08% chg], after a 4 day AZ)
KSS41.9722.2439.1135.75
BDK58.1823.4923.7633.34Buy alert (trig. 3 days ago [on 2008-06-19 at $59.66, -2.48% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
ERJ29.7824.9915.3121.48Accumulation Zone (for 15 days)
GE27.4026.6218.0413.97Accumulation Zone (for 8 days)
GFI11.0927.0523.0830.75Buy alert (trig. 2 days ago [on 2008-06-20 at $11.15, -0.54% chg], after a 2 day AZ)
WHR65.0427.4322.7534.87
IBN33.1228.4329.7030.40
SNDK20.7829.1727.4916.03Accumulation Zone (for 2 days)
BBBY28.0930.0936.3129.44
KB58.3630.8937.6728.48
HDB78.4631.1323.2723.30
TGT48.7432.4734.0527.51
TM97.8533.4937.3528.75
AET41.1233.8129.9918.16
NOK24.4334.8522.7524.36
YHOO21.4536.6524.858.53
DEO74.2137.0624.2737.10
CHA55.8239.2023.2024.61
PG62.9339.2127.5218.33
CSCO24.5539.3141.2227.47
KO53.2640.3224.6928.96
RY45.6040.8635.1020.01
DOW37.6242.0334.6326.61
HBC79.0443.3836.6321.37
MFC36.1345.2739.9928.88
CHL68.4746.3829.1239.50
TEF79.3447.4130.0126.37
LLTC32.4849.7240.9125.99
VCP27.8050.4332.4512.82
VIP29.7552.0337.3024.70
MBT79.4854.9643.8428.54


International Equity Markets Review

Europe

Here is the latest session data for the bourses of Europe.


Here is the latest session data for the London stock exchange FTSE.


Here is the latest session data for the German DAX.


Here is the latest session data for the French CAC 40.


Here is the latest session data for the Milan Italy stock exchange MIBTEL.


Here is the latest session data for the Swiss market index.


Asia-Pacific

Here is the latest session data for the Asia-Pacific stock exchanges.


Here is the latest chart for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index.


Here is the latest chart for the Singapore index .


Here is the latest chart for the Shanghai Composite index .


Here is the latest chart for the Hong Kong Hang Seng index .


Here is the latest chart for the India BSE 30 index .

Here is the latest chart for the Australian All Ordinaries index .


US Equity Markets Review

DJIA (interactive) chart

NASDAQ Composite (interactive) chart

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
MRK 35.83 0.70 1.99% 2.34% -3.14% -7.51% -37.55% -17.37% -39.43% -26.20%
BA 75.59 -0.24 -0.32% 0.76% 2.22% -7.23% -12.73% 1.06% -15.13% -21.19%
UTX 68.82 0.02 0.03% -0.09% 1.88% -1.70% -8.50% -0.28% -11.58% -3.59%
XOM 87.70 2.79 3.29% -0.33% -1.54% -3.31% -6.21% 3.18% -6.13% 6.28%
CVX 99.06 2.44 2.53% -0.43% -2.11% -1.66% 5.99% 19.05% 5.34% 21.47%
VZ 35.91 0.53 1.50% -0.91% -5.35% -3.16% -16.89% -0.58% -18.98% -13.74%
CAT 80.00 0.92 1.16% -1.12% -1.00% -1.90% 13.27% 8.31% 10.00% -1.11%
KO 53.26 -0.40 -0.75% -1.70% -4.65% -9.16% -12.82% -12.75% -15.55% 3.18%
INTC 22.36 -0.01 -0.04% -2.19% -1.76% -4.49% -11.79% 2.80% -17.06% -5.65%
PFE 17.38 0.05 0.29% -2.19% -3.55% -11.10% -24.14% -15.59% -25.22% -31.52%
JNJ 64.29 0.23 0.36% -2.35% -2.04% -0.97% -2.46% -1.67% -5.50% 5.86%
IBM 123.46 0.72 0.59% -2.56% -1.91% -0.60% 17.93% 4.34% 11.18% 18.21%
MMM 72.96 -0.06 -0.08% -2.98% -3.77% -3.76% -11.79% -6.44% -15.21% -15.58%
MSFT 27.97 -0.26 -0.92% -3.32% 0.94% -0.29% -20.58% -4.15% -22.43% -5.15%
DD 45.47 -0.76 -1.64% -3.52% -1.60% -4.51% 3.96% 0.04% 0.26% -13.06%
DIS 32.39 0.45 1.41% -3.74% -2.38% -2.53% 1.73% 1.54% -1.67% -5.13%
HPQ 45.51 -0.13 -0.28% -4.35% -4.45% 1.22% -8.63% -2.13% -12.53% 0.73%
WMT 56.64 0.38 0.68% -4.50% -4.92% 1.60% 20.77% 6.41% 17.49% 18.42%
PG 62.93 -0.23 -0.36% -4.51% -4.75% -3.59% -12.97% -9.28% -15.05% 3.11%
MCD 57.01 -0.39 -0.68% -4.89% -3.88% -1.25% -1.88% 4.76% -5.03% 13.07%
T 34.38 -0.05 -0.15% -4.95% -8.47% -10.77% -16.15% -6.70% -17.12% -11.51%
AA 37.71 0.37 0.99% -5.01% -10.58% -6.31% 4.37% 8.74% 3.74% -5.73%
GE 27.40 0.02 0.07% -5.42% -8.85% -9.96% -25.46% -26.91% -26.23% -28.35%
JPM 36.87 -0.99 -2.61% -7.69% -1.71% -12.88% -12.57% -19.85% -16.41% -24.32%
AXP 40.88 -0.30 -0.73% -8.50% -7.32% -10.06% -19.91% -11.09% -21.31% -33.84%
HD 25.06 -1.19 -4.53% -8.87% -5.58% -6.39% -4.02% -10.69% -6.00% -36.33%
AIG 30.30 -1.80 -5.61% -10.91% -9.53% -18.00%