Yes, purchased one from Amazon last week as soon as they were available.

Will the Bolivarian Revolution End Coal Mining in Venezuela?

The government's indecisiveness about whether to expand or eliminate coal mining aggravates a persistent contradiction in Venezuela's evolving, multi-faceted development model.

On the one hand, it appears the government seeks to expand the exploitation of natural resources, necessarily displacing the local population, while administering the projects in a more worker-friendly way and investing the profits in housing, education, health care and other social programs for which the Chávez administration is renown.

On the other hand, a large sector of the indigenous communities of the Sierra de Perijá have taken the initiative to organize their communities in an empowering, ecologically sustainable way that allows the local economy, culture, language, and identity to survive and be determined by the local people. They oppose any type of "progress" that includes coal exploitation.

http://tinyurl.com/5sgvqz

Halbis sees China stocks fall post-Olympics

Chinese stocks will see further volatility this year with a sharp fall likely after the Olympics in August but their long-term prospects remain intact on rising domestic consumption and continued infrastructure investment

http://tinyurl.com/3rdx5c

Uranium Frenzy in the West

The first phase of a mining boom is the rush to stake claims. In Colorado last year, 10,730 uranium mining claims were filed, up from 120 five years ago. More than 6,000 new claims have been staked in southeast Utah. Throughout the West, claims are up tenfold. Next comes exploratory drilling. That means carving roads across the wildlands to bring in equipment. Drilling teams will have no trouble financing their road-building adventures, since profits for the metals mining industry are up 1,400% in the past six years.

Virtually all of southern Utah's famed national parks and monuments -- Arches, Zion, Bryce, Canyonlands, Capitol Reef, Natural Bridges, and Grand Staircase Escalante -- are surrounded by potential uranium deposits.

Mining Act of 1872 still rules. That Act is, in fact, the Methuselah of taxpayer boondoggles. It obligates the Department of Agriculture's Forest Service and the Interior Department's Bureau of Land Management to approve applications for exploratory drilling without environmental review. Once ore is found and taken, no payment of royalties is required. The giant mining conglomerate, Phelps Dodge, recently acquired the mineral rights to national forest land in Colorado for just over $100,000. The company expects to extract $9 billion in molybdenum from the land. If, to speculators, the prospect of mega-profits is like sex, the Mining Act of 1872 has always been their Viagra.

http://tinyurl.com/4h6ktw

Interest Rate Cuts

Remember the days of the Street clamoring for interest rate cuts?

It seems a lot quiter now. I can't help but think that the Fed's drive-thru discount window has played a role . . .

Chicken - inresponse to these statements......

"If in fact HB&B IS speculating with money borrowed from the Federal Reserve (at negative interest in real terms), are you saying US taxpayers will benefit?"

"What's in it for HB&B? Gas, grass or ass - It's not acceptable to me if HB&B are allowed to speculate with taxpayer monies, driving up commodities (no matter how temporary), then making off with the proceeds to cover their sub-prime debt."

Chicken - first off, I just don't see any evidence of a conspiracy by HB&B to drive oil prices. They are one, albeit large, market participant. Even though they perhaps have access to cheaper money than you and I, they still have the potential to lose money.

It is our leaders that created access to ultra cheap money that created the corrupt borrowing system - our politicians in the White House spending taxpayer money in Iraq with blatant disregard on unproductive measures, using national tragedy such as 911 to push Congress (who is also much to blame) into signing off on rampant spending measures w/o thought of future consequence, and pushing taxpayers into an illusion of wealth in the housing bubble. Our FED giving taxpayer handouts to investment banks to protect against "unknown" disasters. It is my opinion that if the FED had never saved BSC that oil prices would not be $137 a barrel - but they chose to do so giving some steroids to an already rampant inflation problem. The average American has $0 invested in financial markets - so why should the average American care to save BSC? And to think we could cushion this by throwing a $600 funny money buyout was another sham on the taxpayer - the only benefit may be to those taxpayers who already choose not to use oil to drive (though not many can choose not to heat/cool homes). The rest will use that $600 funny money to pay for inflation fueled commodity costs and overpriced mortgages.

So IMO - HB&B is working to find highest returns. This is a system that our "elected" officials created "on our behalf". Money and morality are entirely separate - that is a law of nature. So I can't blame HB&B for seeking the highest returns and they are choosing to do so in commodities right now. When the risk adjusted returns on capital are in another place - the money will flow on.

So certainly taxpayers will NOT BENEFIT. NONE WHATSOEVER from the corrupt money borrowing system that our elected officials have perpetrated - that has given HB&B access to virtually interest free money. Those who are the owners of natural resources have benefitted -will they continue to do so? Quite possibly yes unless there is a change to the way the US operates its lending system.

My point is that we have a monetary system that has created an environment in which the total pool of $US is rising fast, while the worlds pool of natural resources falls. I can not blame HB&B for preferring a finite resource over investing elsewhere. If they didn't have access to virtually interest free money - they would not be borrowing the money to invest in commodities.

So I place blame on our elected officials for being so blind as to the effects of rampant spending. To think that our nation can circle the world spending money with no end and for no productive means is ludicrous! Thank those who voted for this administration who is not concerned with finding the US taxpayer a return on their invested capital. It has been pissed down the drain saving us from Iraq and making sure every American gets their own home. Pipe dreams!

Congress needs to give up on the which hunt and figure out how to stop the unproductive spending of US$. There is nothing illiegal about HB&B speculating and finding the highest risk adjusted rate of return - that is just portfolio management 101. The problem is why does HBB have access to so much free capital with which to do so?

Sat in on one of his conference calls yesterday. He's former Goldman Sachs Trader/Hedge Fund Group Manager

Neutral on S&P 500 and Mainland China Stocks.

Bullish on Hong Kong and US ADR Chinese Stocks-However, they could be vulnerable to a US & Shanghai sell off.

He has same general outlook as Halbis regarding overall Chinese economic future.

Sorry,

Robert Hsu was the analyst on the China info

Cara 100 Update:

YHOO - Upgraded to Hold @ Canaccord Adams

BA ~ 72.43

For those interested in correlation, a study was made between pairs of ETFs and major indexes, including EWZ-QQQ, GLD-FXE, FXA-XLE, USO-TLT, GLD-XLF, DIA-FXI, DIA-VIX, FXC-FXE, GLD-USO, GLD-DIA, GLD-DBA, GLD-EWZ, SPY-DIA, GLD-TLT, DIA-TLT, EWZ-FXA.

Highest correlation in Q208 is for EWZ (Brazil) and QQQ (0.89), DIA and FXI (China) (0.89), FXA-XLE (Aussie dollar and Energy) (0.88), EWZ and FXA (0.88), SPY-DIA (0.84).

This can be useful for hedging and diversification. Tables, graphs and Excel available at http://tinyurl.com/5ju9ys

BA:

Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Safran cut his rating on the Chicago-based company to "Sell" from "Neutral" and added it to the Conviction Sell list.

His new $60 price target -- down from $88

BA under $72 hummmmmm.....
is that dreamliner gonna be obsolete by the time it comes off the line?

SiO2- nice work..

BA will hit $50 last seen in 2005

MON getting a nice morning haircut - I was wrong on this one until I was right - I see $120 in the near future

GE/VLO/TSO/SUN/SNDK/SMN/DUG-> all catching bids...or maybe there's just no one left to sell...

airlines-> it would take oil<100 to move this group...

BillySundance,
I agree with your statements. The Commodity boom is just another in a seemingly never-ending string of bubbles blown by the FED allowing the once-again failing banks and brokerages access to free taxpayer money.

Commodities were the most logical place for the money to end up this time as most asset-backed paper is worthless and the world is awash with bonds of every type so where else would the money go?

With all the mistakes the FED has made this year, not raising rates today would be another huge one. It will make the money stay in commodities that much longer.

I'm still of the mind that The FED should always let the weak banks and brokerages fail and use it's balance sheet to support and enlarge the responsible banks left standing. Otherwise, we have to continually bail out the incompetent banks when they bet wrong again and again, at the same time punishing the responsible banks by not letting them rise.

Crony capitalism at it's worst. Reward the irresponsible while punishing the responsible.

Rob.

if loving (airlines) is wrong, then i don't want to be right...Wright?

Pro Share Holders

You are a little richer this morning....

Yesterday was the ex-date for the dividend and the payable date is June 30th.

DUG 0.04172
QID 0.09224
SDS 0.14533
SRS 0.43954

http://www.proshares.com/funds/distributions

Looks like money started moving from commodities to financials starting late yesterday and early today.....

The selloff is JRCC came as I thought. Another that caught my eye was PDO.

BA - will it fill this mornings gap?

Any comments on JBLU? What about CGS.TO? Canada Channel 3 is taking a beating.

2nd - good call on CAF yesterday

It looks like the pumping of the financials which started yesterday continues. Since when was having to raise $9 billion dollars good news?

Terrible housing data revised better for April and 'beats' expectations for May but still terrible.

Still about 3% up on my SKF and SRS(dividends help).

I was hoping 11750 resistance would break.

Also wondering what the FED will decide. If they hold it appears another Bear rally is starting led by financial pumping. If they increase then what?

The accumulation and buy alerts on Bill's tables are why I think we may rally. Very few stocks in distribution zone and a few sells. Those two tables fortold the last Bear rally at the end of March and looked very similar.

Should be an interesting day and a learning experience.

"Since when was having to raise $9 billion dollars good news?"

It ain't good news but it is old news. I think a lot of these "financings" are simply a method by which those who are short financial stocks cover their positions. Its the great escape. Run 'em back up, short 'em again, then finance the stinkers to cover the short position. Rinse and repeat.

MAS:

according to FINVIS, Richard Manoogian bought ~ 2 million shares June 20.

QT,
If Ben doesn't raise today, I'm expecting DIG to hit another high and DUG another low. I'm thinking about selling into strength today.

I'm thinking about buying a straddle on DIA for Jan 09 too. That way I can be everywhere at once. The best would be to plunge right after the announcement and then start rallying hard.

Rob.

jv - the banks don't necessarily need to raise $9 billion if they can pump up their stocks-
remember what Bill opined yesterday "this rally attempt is a move by banks and broker-dealers to shore up their own stocks, as I see it."

Off topic - Does anyone know how I can get Bill's book in Canada? My wife tried to order one from Bill's website around Christmas as a present, but there was that shipping miscalculation. Now, Amazon.com won't ship this to north of the border, and it's not on Amazon.ca....

Thanks

[Bill Cara note: In Canada, the book is available via ISI Publications attn Jeremy Loeb. I think (possibly), if you click on my website icon for the book, it will go through because I believe other international orders have been processed this week. I'll look into it.]

RE: Dave

I got my copy from:

http://tinyurl.com/4hojcg

So, with BCS up does that mean diluting shareholders is good again?

It was bad when LEH did it but maybe the story has changed already.

Rob.

oil dropping...

GE rocketing...

If the Fed increases, we rally too... so long as this morning doesn't get too trigger-happy with the buying.

The indices were / are oversold & looking for an excuse to rally. If the fed raises, it thinks the economy can withstand the hike, they're getting tough on inflation, this will help the dollar, help bring down oil, etc.

I know Bill said yesterday in the comments that the activity in the financials could easily be (likely was/is?) self-supporting behavior, but the DJIA tested support yesterday & held. Big volume & recovery in the financials, no matter who's buying. We're oversold... This leads to a high probability of a rally.

That being said, I'd be surprised if the Fed does anything other than hold this afternoon.

Finger Lakes

Rob

Unless Uncle Ben drops it which I cannot imagine he would, why do you thing DIG will hit another high?

If there is a big sell off today then they will be "puking" stocks from all sectors causing DUG to soar. But if there is a rally, then $$$ will flow from the "over bought" energy sector to the other over sold areas of the past weeks. Just my thoughts.

Holding: 2 semi trucks full of DUG, QID, and
"junk" [UXG]

The Fed will hold. You read it here first. ;)

QT,
Your reasoning sounds good. I guess I've been thinking that with all the tough talk about fighting inflation having supported the dollar recently and capping crude in the 130's that any sign of weakness in that stance will spring Crude forward and drive the dollar back down.

We have to ask what the crowd expects and how have they bet this time? I still think there's alot of people long Oil and Short Financials. Is there enough to sustain a big move the opposite way? I guess that's the main question.

Rob.

Off topic...US Supreme Court reduces compensatory damages related to the Exon Valdez oil spill to .10 on the dollar.

Finger Lakes

Rob

To be perfectly honest, anything can happen. And your "sign of weakness" angle would do exactly just that, send oil higher. I am in camp the world economies can't operate at $135+/bbl very long. And at some point I expect some serious profit taking in the energy sector. I am willing to sit and wait. But I'm keeping my finger on the sell button just in case something screwy happens.

Let me know if you sell.

Rob

Check out this article about DIG & DUG.

http://tinyurl.com/3mc9ex

Note the part half way down titled:

"Who the hell is Richard Rainwater?"

He bailed!

I propose we send the 12 robed geniuses to Alaska to fend for themselves on the beaches where the Exxon Valdez ran aground. I'll give em' a dime.

If lower courts can't assess punitive damages that are draconian, how does the citizenry protect itself from greedy (and drunken) plunderers? These bastards only understand one thing....loss of their precious money.

TSO - Big boys selling off those calls and buy the common? makes sense to me

SWC has been brutalized again today - but whomever is knocking it down is not having much success shaking shares loose - considering the size of decline over the past few days, volume is pretty moderate...............a big game of chicken.................some dark forces are definitely at work on this puppy

Out of curiosity regarding the Exxon Valdez accident. Has anyone visited the area personally lately? I'm just curious what shape it's really in.

QT,
Great article. Now it all depends on how many retail people are long OIL and oil companies. If enough of us are long HB&B will go short and crash the commodities market.

But what if most of us are still short? They'll stay long and keep hammering us. I also agree that eventually the tide will turn.

Now let's look at Ben and what he's done. Has he done anything to stop the latest bubble? Who has he been supporting this entire time? Is there enough pressure to make him change his tune? What is the most uncomfortable trade right now?

I'm thinking the most pain lies with higher oil and lower dollar and lower financials still.

Rob.

If you support BC, do you support WGO? Trends appear similar.

I'm not thinking that gas-guzzling motor homes are in many American futures.

Question on AIG 60 min chart from yesterday?

Would the low of 29.72 late in the day be a double bottom in relation to the earlier lows of 29.65/29.66?

My entry is 38.88 from a few days ago.

taking NWA off here...holding UAUA/DAL...

AIG.......38.88 s/b 30.88

2nd

Did you sell your SMN?

Bill:

As a professional Author, I should warn potential authors: that it's a very hard dollar: If you want to be an author, it should be out of love for the word and not for the dollar. I think the average author only makes 500.00 a year.

Speaking of which your book never made it to me from the last publisher... and I moved on also to boot to a wandering lifestyle... I am not sure if it will find me in the maze of post office halls :(

When I settle next I will re-order. *sigh*

few more hours before the clown show happens... Better than any circus.

[Bill Cara note: Agreed. Wordsmithing is a tough life that one has to do mostly for the love of it.

Re the book; contact ISI Publications attn Jeremy Loeb. He has been following up lots of mis-deliveries from their fulfillment company. I think they reshipped about 16.]

QT- no..

Quick update re: gold and oil.

I stopped out of the gold trade I put on last week (DGP) even though no sell signal has come. I want to be out of the way should the government do something today. The DUG hedge has worked out well however, and I sold some 32 calls into the spike this morning.

Will reload the gold assuming we get a spike down, or little downside from the fed announcement. I just need to be out given the risk. Obviously a 1/4 point wouldn't do anything in reality, but in the market it could take another $30-40 off gold. You know what they say about making up opportunities v. capital.

Karl

Scottrade ELITE users

Q: When charting is it possible to compare two stocks at once on the same chart [i.e.DIG & DUG] ?

jk484: interesing info on "Uranium frenzy in the West." But how do you explain the fact that uranium price has been declining for a year now (it came down from $140/lb to below $60/lb)? I'm hesitant to invest in uranium companies until that chart establishes a visible uptrend.

DavidV

QT - I'm fairly sure I saw something about that being possible, but I can't remember the syntax - I tried DIG:DUG and DIG-DUG but neither works. Couldn't find it in the online help either :-(

FED HOLDS RATES STEADY, ESCALATES WARNINGS ABOUT INFLATION

Fed Unchanged - 2%

[Bill Cara note: FOMC yawn... At least Kathleen Hays at Bloomberg is doing her usual good job, and she has a good group of guests.]

cyderman

Thanks! I tried the same thing too with no success.

QT,
I'm out of DUG at 28.05. I may buy puts on it or just wait to see what happens. I'm thinking oil and financials will lead the market higher.

Rob.

There is no longer short term support for the dollar. Gold bounced off 875; solid reversal.

Finger Lakes

Rob, smart move. I'm hard headed so I stuck with it. I'm up still but of course not as much.

Is the FED toolbag empty? Its hard to fight inflation with jaw-boning and rhetoric.

PPT showing up? Watching the general GE and GS for clues.

Community,

I need some advice.

This morning I placed a limit all or none order at $93.03 for 150 shares of UPL via Vanguard. UPL hit a low of $93.00 way after the order was placed. Vanguard did not execute my order and it is still open.

I spoke with a Vanguard Rep. and found out multiple order sold below $93.03. One of which was 800 shares.

The Vanguard Rep. spoke with another department which told him my order did not execute because you have to find an order to buy for exactly 150 shares because of the all or nothing.

I told the Rep. this is bull and am waiting for Vanguard to call back which may be tomorrow.

Currently UPL is selling for $96 and change.

I would appreciate any advice. I feel I am getting hosed.

Thanks.

ALOHA !!

The FED is laughable! Somebody please remind me why we need this entity again? Is it so US citizens can go broke faster bailing out the elite bankers? A central bank is nothing more than a "clearing house" for tax revenues transfered from US Taxpayers to US Banks! In other words ... bank welfare!

I have found "all or none" orders will do exactly that for the reason you were told, and are nothing but trouble. I use simple limit orders a little under the last price. I used AON a lot when I was trading huge blocks or OTC pennies. Many times, they just sta there. I made a small fortune doing that. Problem is I started with a large fortune.

ALOHA !!

ON LYM
Go to website for info on two new directors who have very heavy experience in coal mining. Also I hear there will be an important announcement tomorrow about a very large property that LYM will own. I could get no further details. I assume a "coal property" is in the works!

From the FOMC statement:

"Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending."

They put a really nice spin on this line. So what is accounting for the higher household spending? food, gas, electricity, mortgage payments?

How about a line on disposable spending?

Kaimu: Just think how clever the dollar debasement is. Saving on entitlement payouts and sliding everyone into higher tax brackets. Look at all that oil and gasoline tax they are now getting. Look at how bad we are hosing the Chinese, and they are too fearful of not filling our Wal Marts, they let us stick it to them.

BOOM - Double bottom forming?

"Economic risks diminished..." That's funny. I suppose that's why GM will give a 0% car loan for 6 years.

Euro over 157.

BOOM looks like there is more "bust" to go, to me. It's an echo, not a double bottom.

Naples,

I think Vanguard is right. An odd lot all or none order is difficult to execute. odd lot = lots that are not multiples of 100.

We had a V bottom yesterday, which IMO is not sustainable. All the other intermediate bottoms in this bear market have been W bottoms formed over several hours. This is a reflex rally off of support which will have to be retested.

Banks like C and WM are being sold hard.

ALOHA !!

The US FED and the US CONGRESS all know that the only shred of hope and credibility they have is to keep the DOW and NASDAQ from tanking. The American Dream of real estate is dead, the American Dream of cheap oil is dead, the American Dream of unlimited spending is dead, the American Dream of retiring is dead and all that is left is those fat little dividend checks from companies like GE and GM and some sorts of "capital gains" now and then! If GE or GM ever stopped paying dividends ... watch out below! I find it hard to believe that GM can afford a dividend with $300bil of debt and the GMAC anchor around its neck! But somehow, that dividend keeps getting paid. I wonder how?

As Americans we have been sold a bill of goods that the US stock market and US real estate would go up forever and ever. In US Peso terms those markets crashed long ago and so has the DOW and NASDAQ when compared to the cost of the DOW in Euros or gold. Its all smoke and mirrors as the elite beg the US FED to hold the door open a little longer until they can get out of Dodge!

So the World is as it is supposed to be while the US FED is in charge as the DOW rallies on news that no more interest rate cuts are coming and inflation fears are in the pipe! Problem is most Americans don't need the US FED for that all they need is the receipt from the local Chevron and SafeWay!

The last double-bottom I saw was the Dewart twins, Wendy and Susan.

on a heavier note, so much for the rally.

Billy -

"Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending."

This deceptive wordsmithing spins an increase in spending, while the underlying message is rate of decrease is slowing.

More Alice in Wonderland spin...

Naples - Cancel or change your sell order to partial, and your stock should sell right away. $3 more is a great thing, right?

I think it is still true "as goes GM, so goes the nation"

Naples, AON orders are supposed to be in round lots of 100. Vanguard should have kicked the order out as being entered incorrectly. If I remember, the SEC has banned them, Rule 61, and if they are entered they just sit there and are ignored. I use to use them years ago and when I tried to do it a year ago I was told that they were eliminated by Wall Street and the SEC because not enough orders were entered that way. Of course, that is BS.

DOW out of synch with other indices today, BA GM AXP killing it

No positions, closed 2x short DOW eod yest.

Relaxing patiently waiting

Dave

I got out of my DIA call today when the market was up 100 pts at a slight loss. If that is all Ben can do for the market, it might just start going back down again. I might have to get back into my FXP trade this week...

One of the reasons I think Long Oil and Oil companies will keep working for awhile longer is that way more calls then puts have been selling on DUG lately as well as way more puts than calls on USO.

I haven't checked individual Oil stocks but I would imagine they're selling more puts than calls as well.

Rob.

I think we'll see commodities along with Gold start soaring again tomorrow.

I would think financials would rally too as Ben left rates unchanged but consumer stocks and Tech will suffer. Small caps should rally as well unless Oil spikes too high.

We'll see if I'm thinking with the crowd or with HB&B.

Rob.

Here's a follow up to Kaimu's Fed Comments

Richard Russell Rants on The Fed

excerpt from June 24 Dow Theory Letter

"June 24, 2008 -- All the idiotic talk about the income tax, it just makes me angry. How is it that our politicians or presidential candidates never talk about the fundamentals, or what's behind the need for the income tax? I will reveal the disgusting secret below.

If the American people ever realized or understood how the Fed operates and how money is created in the US, there would probably be a ten million man and woman march on Washington and more specifically a march on the Federal Reserve Building. The Fed is a private banking monopoly that has "grabbed hold" of the money-creation of the United States. Who controls a nation's money, controls that nation.

The US needs money to pay for building roads, for buying war planes, for fighting wars, for paying Congressmen, for paying IRS and Post Office employees, for a thousand different items. For this the government turns to the tax payers or it turns to the Federal Reserve. The Fed is nothing more than a group of private banks that charge interest on money that never existed before.

How does the system of money creation work? A simplified but true explanation. The government needs ten billion dollars (aside from what it takes in income taxes or from what it borrows). So the government then prints ten billion dollars worth of interest-bearing US government bonds. Next, it takes the bonds to the Fed. The Fed accepts the bonds, and then places ten billion dollars in a checking account. The US government then writes checks to the tune of ten billion dollars against their checking account. But where was that ten billion dollars before the Fed issued the money? The money didn't exist. Can you believe it, the money was created by the Fed "out of thin air."

In other words, the Fed lends the US government the money -- and the crowning irony is that the Fed then charges the government interest forever on the bonds that the US government sold to the Fed in the first place. And the debts build and build and the national debt grows ever- larger.

How about the interest that is owed on the national debt, which has now grown to a choking $500 billion a year? That's part of where our income taxes go. The government taxes our sorry asses partly to pay for expenses incurred by our very own government. And a further crowning irony -- the government taxes us to pay for the interest on the ever-expanding national debt.

Question -- How does the Fed get away with this incredible racket? Why doesn't the US government, instead of issuing bonds, issue its own money? Damn it, if the US government can issue bonds, why can't it issue its own sovereign money -- US Treasury Notes? Why are you and I carrying Federal Reserve Notes in our wallets instead of US Treasury Notes?

Ask your Congressman, demand an answer from your Senator, write to the Supreme Court and ask them why the Constitutionality of the Fed has never been put to the test. Ask Treasury Secretary Paulson or President Bush why the Federal Reserve has never been audited. Ask why you are paying an income tax which partly goes to cover the interest on a disgraceful and ever-rising national debt.

Ask your spouse, ask your neighbor, ask you Congressman, "How are dollars created?" Ask them, "Where does my money come from?" My bet -- they won't have a ghost of an answer. They won't even understand your question. Nothing is more mysterious, nothing is less understood, than the workings of the Federal Reserve and the creation of fiat money in the United States.

One June 10, 1932, Louis T. McFadden, then Chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee, pleaded before the House for the elimination of the Fed. "Mr. Chairman," he stated, "we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks."

Enough. A democracy thrives or dies on the intelligence, the interest, and the voting power of its citizens. If the people are too lazy or too ignorant to question where their money comes from or who benefits from the creation of their money, then they deserve what they get. What did we get? We got the Federal Reserve and the income tax and inflation and the loss of purchasing power of our savings (assuming we have any savings). That's what we got.

RIMM miss on both rev & EPS -- down 9% AH

Dave

Consumer running out of Blackberry cash with food and gas so expensive?

*post from cell phone, may duplicate*

Re: fed and treasury

The story above brings home good points.
One problem it isn't completely accurate as the agenda is being made.

The treas issues bills, notes and bonds. The fed does not buy them directly they are sold on the market. Retail buyers get first dibs to purchase after the players set the demand from the action bidding process.

The problem is money isn't "created" out of thin air as we may believe. The money comes from the money that is out in the "public". Hence no money is created out of thin air it is swapped from money that has already been created. That money is then spent by the us gov.
During the auction (bonds notes and bills) the sales are placed in electric ledger.
Money is created by fractional lending which the reserve requiement is set by the fed.

Remember the system can't print money out of thin air but the bills are printed and sold every week as notes and bonds 2 to 4 times a year.
When sold the public money goes to buy them.

Kinda strange how someone always seems to line up to buy them if our currency isn't worth the cotton or code it is made up from?
Probably about 4 bil not so smart individuals out there waiting in line for a us gov I owe you and won't pay you.

RIMM may be foreboding, since almost all their business is corporate, not consumer. This may be telling us that corporate spending is slowing - something most analysts haven't even speculated might happen this soon.

Dave

QT-Scottrade ELITE

In a blank chart enter "xle,uso", click go. Configure each symbol as desired. No space after the comma.

Re: Bond Rates, Money, Oil, Gold

Looks like bond rates may have peaked and will soon stabilize or turnaround, meaning more money returning into bonds.

The Fed steadying rates may have the effect of supporting the bond market, as rates are already 80 basis points below 2yr yields.

How is money created? Printing any number of bonds to ensure yields stay high.

Yahoo Finance

http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds

Euro Bank

http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/yc/html/index.en.html

Euro bank interest rates have come off a bit today.

There has to be a lack of hard money in the system, but no end of yielding notes riding on endless quantities of interest-laden credit.

The real amount of money in the system is the available hard cash for transaction purposes, much of the transaction activity is now related to derivatives. Cash would be in very short order and hard to come by if the collapse were to continue. I believe that the bond rout was not a signal to inflation, but a universal move to raise capital.

The place to watch for the next development would probably be in bond yields, but also commodities futures chains. The monthly chart for oil prices is showing downturn for July, so I assume that oil futures across the chain will see some modification. That being said, the futures chain for oil is flat, very similar to aluminum:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=CLQ08.NYM

By contrast, Gold still has a lengthy, healthy contango ahead of it:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=GCM08.CMX

Physical offtake in precious metals has been moderated, while large capital infusions have mostly been directed at the oil markets.

Astral25

Great rant from Richard Russell; "The Fed is nothing more than a group of private banks that charges interest on money that never existed before" What a concise, clear simplification of fact on how money (not wealth) is created. Question? Do all Central Banks around the world operate in this fashion??

Thanks DanR

Well the Tech down part of my prediction looks to be good for tomorrow at least.

I think Gold will rise for awhile now. I'm thinking about some Jan 09 calls on GLD.

I still think oil has some kick too.

Didn't someone post that the oil companies now comprise a larger percentage of the S&P than the financials now.

The old era used to be with the Financials so goes the S&P. Maybe the new era is with the energy companies so goes the S&P.

Tomorrow we'll see the real reaction to the FED.

Rob.

Miadhach

Thanks for the 2 stock chart solution.

I noticed when viewing candlesticks style the last stock entered shows up the best.

As for the line style both are the same By chance is there a way to make each line a different color?

Finger Lakes

Rob... "The Wizzard" of Cara said on the 24th

"The DJIA futures are down -42 to 11789, which is just above the 11700-11750 range that many technical analysts consider as a strong support base, and which I think will break this week."

Have to admit his calls have been on the $$$ many times. So wouldn't you think a general sell off will occur [Thur or Fri] to bring it down past that mark. Which of course would include my nemesis..."Oil".

QT

Go to "Settings/Configure Individual Chart/symbol/Color-Line". The same window can also configure the other symbol. Just change the "Plotted Symbol" in the upper left corner

Rob

Oil is heavier in weight that the financials.

However tech is still takes the prize as far as the sp 500

Miadhach

Thanks again for the help!

RIMM sells off after-hours to 131, but that simply takes it back 9 trading days to where it launched its latest move up...

QT- this is a bear market, after all, so a major sell-off could enuse at any time...

my 'positioning' (such as it is) is pretty straightforward: a) SMN/DUG seem to offer the best potential for gains if it all sells off, b) long refiners/airlines/shanghai (short oil plays), which offer upside potential if oil drops and the market either (counter) rallies OR sells off (if oil sells off along with everything else, can you think of any other long positions that would benefit?), and c) limiting total positions to no more than 30% of the portfolio-> even if refiners and airlines get hit hard, having 70% available to invest at 10000/2000 (if that were to occur) would hopefully more than offset losses...

there's also the alternative of being in 100% cash, but i think there's money to be made while waiting...

http://tinyurl.com/5ul48o

I hope you find this amusing...at least.

2nd

I do believe in your post (4.49 PM)
sold all my position except refiners.
will get in airline when they again hit 52 week low. missed out on CAF.

"BA:

Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Safran cut his rating on the Chicago-based company to "Sell" from "Neutral" and added it to the Conviction Sell list.

His new $60 price target -- down from $88"

Posted by: jk484 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 25, 2008 9:37 AM

jk484- i like the term "conviction sell list:" now that BA is at the 52-wk low, the analyst is more convinced than ever it's a sell? LOL...let's see, with a closing price of 69 (and a target price of 60), GS is probably starting to pick some up...and they'll be adding it to the "conviction buy list" when it hits 120 (with a target of 130)...

QT: Line charts in ST....

Right click chart which brings up a menu.
Left click chart settings.
Left click configure individual chart.
Choose line color, pick a color.
Repeat for each equity charted.

2nd...my thinking exactly on BA....but I'll wait to see if it comes to me a bit more .....like Goldman will!

2nd, Vinod, was in CAF but had a tight stop and got stopped out on today's pullback.
I will try again if it gives me an entry.
Would love to run it back from high 30's to low 50's again.

craig- good to see GFI heading back up on increasing volume...

also wondering if enough investors are now looking for 150+ oil for them to bring it down...and at what price maximum pain will be inflicted...

btw, i like the marketwatch headline for EIA forecasts: "Oil may surge as high as $186 a barrel ... in 2030"...when that showed up on the ticker this morning, wonder how many nervous oil shorts stopped to register that 2030 is 22 years away, or that the $186 is in nominal terms ;)...

http://tinyurl.com/4ozlcd

illinois and california file suit against CFC and Mozilo:

http://tinyurl.com/4vym2x

lay, skilling, ebbers...mozilo? the fall from grace can be long and hard...maybe his people should start talking with their people...

QT,
I could see a major sell-off starting tomorrow since I think we need a higher spike in the put-call ratio before we'll change short-term direction.

I could also see us rally from here until earnings really start in the third week of July.

Either way, I think the dollar weakens and commodities strengthen because Ben didn't deliver. He talked tough but when the chips were down we saw he was still with the banks and not the average person.

Reality is where else could be a better return right now than commodities? Real assets in limited supply are the last ones off the stage while we slide to depression. Especially since tech will be shunned tomorrow on RIMM's earnings.

Rob.

2nd,
I really think you have some great positioning right now. Especially since you still have 70% dry powder in case it all falls apart.

I'm still long LEH and plan to go with some puts on DUG and calls on GLD to balance out my financial exposure. I'm also considering straddling DIA for Jan 09 expiration since I believe we'll go way below and way above where we are now by then.

Hopefully noone is long the QQQ's as they'll get pounded tomorrow.

Rob.

He,he,he....added QID as RIMM imploded AH....

Love Me, Tender (Your Resignation)

http://tinyurl.com/6aehmn

Anyone going to be buying the open today? No rush here...

Michael Berry - Morning Notes for June 25

http://tinyurl.com/3rk82x

ALOHA !!

ron ... thanks! here is what Warren Buffet says about Bernanke: * Buffett says if he were Bernanke 'I'd tender my resignation'-CNBC interview

I'll take it one step further and say "US FED tender your termination!"

2nd_ave ... Well, if I were those States I'd be suing also. Look at how much property tax revenues CFC is costing California! So now California taxpayer dollars will fund lawsuits against fraudulent mortgage companies. Wouldn't it have been easier in the long run to "regulate" them more strictly? Is it rocket science to understand less than 10% down will be problematic? That no credit or income verification would be abused? Hummmmmm??? PURE GREED! The hallmark of FIAT!